Methodology

Data sources

All odds and fixture data is sourced from the SportMonks v3 API. We prioritise Pinnacle odds as the consensus benchmark — widely regarded as the sharpest line in the market. Where Pinnacle odds are unavailable, we fall back to the broadest available bookmaker consensus.

Odds bands

To analyse market behaviour, we group pre-match odds into bands of 0.2 width (e.g., 1.4–1.6, 1.6–1.8, etc.) ranging from 1.02 to 3.50. For each band, we calculate:

  • Hit rate — the percentage of matches where the outcome occurred (e.g., Over 2.5 goals)
  • Implied probability — derived from the pre-match odds (1 / odds × 100)
  • Edge — the gap between implied probability and actual hit rate, expressed in percentage points

Positive edge means the outcome happens more often than the market prices suggest; negative edge means the market overestimates the probability.

Market Heatmap

The heatmap displays hit rates as a colour-coded grid — leagues on rows, odds bands on columns. Green cells indicate the outcome occurred more often than implied; red cells indicate less. Cell opacity reflects sample size for visual confidence.

Odds vs Reality

This tool plots implied probability (x-axis) against actual hit rate (y-axis) for each league and market. Points above the diagonal line represent market under-pricing; points below represent over-pricing. We require a minimum sample of 20 matches per data point to reduce noise.

Backtesting

The backtesting sandbox applies a flat-stake strategy to historical data. For each selected league and market, it simulates laying every qualifying match at the recorded pre-match odds and calculates cumulative P&L, Return on Stake (ROS), and maximum drawdown. Commission is applied at the standard exchange rate.

Backtests use the exact recorded odds from the time of each match — no hindsight bias or model-fitted parameters.

Match statistics

For completed matches, we collect 40+ statistical categories including shots, possession, corners, cards, passes, tackles, and more. These are displayed in post-match recaps alongside the pre-match odds context, providing a full picture of how the match unfolded relative to market expectations.

Limitations

  • Historical data begins July 2021. Leagues added later in our coverage may have fewer data points.
  • Odds are captured pre-match and may differ from the price available at kick-off.
  • Corners and Cards markets have shorter historical depth than Goals Over/Under and 1x2 markets.
  • All analytics are backward-looking. Market conditions, team compositions, and league dynamics change over time.