The 2026 tournament
by the numbers.

Across nearly 50,000 historical matches, the bookmaker's implied probability for Over 2.5 goals landed within 1pp of the actual hit rate. The wisdom-of-crowds effect is real — picking blind is roughly a coin flip.

n = 48,150 matches priced on Over 2.5

From 2.16 goals/match in Argentina's Liga Profesional to 3.55+ in the DFB Pokal, the league you watch dictates whether you should bet the over. Tournament football historically scores closer to 2.5 — closer to the lower end of this range.

n = 49,491 matches, 53 leagues, 2021–2026

Across club football, home teams win 44.6% of matches and draw another 24.7%. At neutral-venue international tournaments, home edge compresses — meaning more draws and more upsets than your gut expects.

n = 49,491 club matches

Italian Serie A sits on 4 of the top-10 biggest market mispricings in the dataset — the market consistently underestimates draws and home favourites. Italy's group matches at WC 2026 are the ones to watch for value.

n = 4,200+ Serie A matches across 5 seasons

DFB Pokal (3.55 g/m), Coupe de France (3.25), and the FA Cup all out-score their parent leagues by 0.5+ goals per match. Knockout football makes managers go for it — useful intel for the WC R32 onwards.

n = 5,400 cup matches vs equivalent league sample

In Mexico's Liga MX, away teams priced 2.6-2.8 cover ~10pp more often than the market implies. The smart-money zone isn't the longest shots — it's the priced-up second favourites people are too scared to back.

n = 103+ matches per band

Lay Over 2.5 in Europa League games priced 1.4-1.6 actually loses 9.3pp vs implied. Heavy favourites in two-legged ties play conservatively — the over is a trap.

n = 136 Europa League matches

Across all 48,150 priced matches, Over 2.5 goals hit 51.5% of the time. The market has it implied at 50.5%. The 1pp edge is real — but the *real* edge is choosing the right league. Pokal Over 2.5 hits 67.2%.

n = 48,150 priced matches