1,422 matches | 2021-08-13 → 2026-02-15
Avg Goals
3.17
Over 2.5 Rate
60.7%
Home Win Rate
44.4%
Draw Rate
24.7%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 35 | 71.4% | 76.2% | -4.8% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 51 | 62.7% | 66% | -3.3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 57 | 57.9% | 57.7% | +0.2% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 48 | 50% | 52% | -2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 67 | 41.8% | 47% | -5.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 74 | 47.3% | 43.1% | +4.2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 67 | 47.8% | 39.9% | +7.9% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 69 | 44.9% | 36.9% | +8% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 69 | 20.3% | 34.2% | -13.9% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 76 | 36.8% | 32% | +4.8% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 69 | 33.3% | 30.1% | +3.2% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 20 | 25% | 28.9% | -3.9% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2-3.4 | 31 | 25.8% | 29.8% | -4% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 28 | 35.7% | 28.9% | +6.8% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 50 | 86% | 86.3% | -0.3% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 102 | 74.5% | 76.2% | -1.7% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 123 | 69.1% | 65.7% | +3.4% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 130 | 59.2% | 58.1% | +1.1% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 129 | 55% | 52.2% | +2.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 134 | 41.8% | 47.1% | -5.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 109 | 48.6% | 43.1% | +5.5% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 99 | 39.4% | 39.9% | -0.5% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 77 | 36.4% | 36.9% | -0.5% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 63 | 30.2% | 34.4% | -4.2% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 52 | 19.2% | 32.2% | -13% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 47 | 25.5% | 30% | -4.5% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 20 | 50% | 28.9% | +21.1% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 144 | 78.5% | 74.9% | +3.6% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 327 | 71.9% | 65.6% | +6.3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 441 | 59.9% | 58.6% | +1.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 297 | 50.2% | 52.6% | -2.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 123 | 49.6% | 47.7% | +1.9% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 58 | 43.1% | 43.9% | -0.8% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 41 | 65.9% | 57.3% | +8.6% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 119 | 52.1% | 52.4% | -0.3% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 239 | 48.5% | 47.3% | +1.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 259 | 45.6% | 43.5% | +2.1% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 211 | 37.4% | 39.7% | -2.3% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 160 | 30.6% | 37% | -6.4% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 109 | 33.9% | 34.4% | -0.5% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 69 | 24.6% | 32.1% | -7.5% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 41 | 26.8% | 30.1% | -3.3% |
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