1,115 matches | 2021-07-06 → 2026-01-28
Avg Goals
2.99
Over 2.5 Rate
56.6%
Home Win Rate
48.4%
Draw Rate
19.4%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 39 | 76.9% | 75.9% | +1% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 44 | 61.4% | 66.5% | -5.1% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 82 | 63.4% | 57.8% | +5.6% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 43 | 58.1% | 52.1% | +6% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 52 | 50% | 47.5% | +2.5% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 47 | 48.9% | 43.1% | +5.8% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 60 | 45% | 40.1% | +4.9% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 35 | 34.3% | 36.7% | -2.4% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 43 | 37.2% | 34.2% | +3% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 40 | 45% | 32% | +13% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 23 | 26.1% | 30% | -3.9% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2-3.4 | 56 | 32.1% | 30% | +2.1% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 37 | 21.6% | 28.9% | -7.3% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 73 | 90.4% | 86.9% | +3.5% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 136 | 83.1% | 75.4% | +7.7% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 115 | 67.8% | 65.8% | +2% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 97 | 58.8% | 58.6% | +0.2% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 76 | 61.8% | 52.1% | +9.7% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 61 | 42.6% | 47.1% | -4.5% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 45 | 51.1% | 43.3% | +7.8% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 64 | 40.6% | 39.8% | +0.8% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 25 | 28% | 36.6% | -8.6% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 49 | 34.7% | 34.5% | +0.2% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 38 | 23.7% | 31.9% | -8.2% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 31 | 19.4% | 30.1% | -10.7% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 75 | 80% | 73.4% | +6.6% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 213 | 65.3% | 65.6% | -0.3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 297 | 57.9% | 58.3% | -0.4% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 198 | 56.1% | 52.3% | +3.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 116 | 44.8% | 47.7% | -2.9% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 81 | 43.2% | 43.5% | -0.3% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 40 | 27.5% | 40.1% | -12.6% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 23 | 65.2% | 64.6% | +0.6% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 110 | 60.9% | 57.9% | +3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 118 | 57.6% | 52% | +5.6% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 175 | 45.1% | 47.6% | -2.5% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 173 | 46.2% | 43.3% | +2.9% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 134 | 37.3% | 40.1% | -2.8% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 98 | 36.7% | 37% | -0.3% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 66 | 27.3% | 34.4% | -7.1% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 45 | 40% | 32.1% | +7.9% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 33 | 39.4% | 29.9% | +9.5% |
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