439 matches | 2021-07-28 → 2025-12-21
Avg Goals
2.45
Over 2.5 Rate
44%
Home Win Rate
47.4%
Draw Rate
18.2%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 31 | 54.8% | 58% | -3.2% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 28 | 42.9% | 52.8% | -9.9% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 67 | 50.7% | 46.9% | +3.8% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 97 | 44.3% | 43.2% | +1.1% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 95 | 37.9% | 39.6% | -1.7% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 52 | 32.7% | 37.1% | -4.4% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 28 | 39.3% | 34.6% | +4.7% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 105 | 61% | 64.5% | -3.5% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 164 | 59.8% | 58.3% | +1.5% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 80 | 50% | 52.6% | -2.6% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 27 | 51.9% | 47.6% | +4.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 29 | 55.2% | 43.6% | +11.6% |
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