1,125 matches | 2021-07-01 → 2025-11-30
Avg Goals
3.08
Over 2.5 Rate
61.2%
Home Win Rate
46.4%
Draw Rate
22.3%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 73 | 82.2% | 73.5% | +8.7% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 284 | 68% | 65.6% | +2.4% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 364 | 61.5% | 58.5% | +3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 239 | 54.4% | 52.5% | +1.9% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 109 | 47.7% | 47.8% | -0.1% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 39 | 61.5% | 43.7% | +17.8% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 34 | 41.2% | 57.5% | -16.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 104 | 49% | 51.8% | -2.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 208 | 47.6% | 47.1% | +0.5% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 206 | 39.8% | 43.3% | -3.5% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 168 | 38.7% | 39.8% | -1.1% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 127 | 31.5% | 37% | -5.5% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 94 | 31.9% | 34.5% | -2.6% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 60 | 33.3% | 32.1% | +1.2% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 46 | 30.4% | 30.2% | +0.2% |
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