1,894 matches | 2021-07-06 → 2025-12-18
Avg Goals
2.75
Over 2.5 Rate
52%
Home Win Rate
48.7%
Draw Rate
21.3%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 22 | 77.3% | 87.1% | -9.8% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 66 | 77.3% | 75% | +2.3% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 93 | 53.8% | 65.4% | -11.6% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 106 | 56.6% | 58.2% | -1.6% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 93 | 45.2% | 52.1% | -6.9% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 92 | 52.2% | 47.1% | +5.1% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 72 | 48.6% | 43.1% | +5.5% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 86 | 29.1% | 39.8% | -10.7% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 81 | 49.4% | 37% | +12.4% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 69 | 27.5% | 34.2% | -6.7% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 61 | 32.8% | 32% | +0.8% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 63 | 31.7% | 30.1% | +1.6% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 22 | 27.3% | 29% | -1.7% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0-3.2 | 84 | 26.2% | 31.9% | -5.7% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 205 | 26.8% | 30.1% | -3.3% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 115 | 26.1% | 28.9% | -2.8% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 133 | 91% | 87.1% | +3.9% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 233 | 73.4% | 76.2% | -2.8% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 207 | 63.8% | 66.1% | -2.3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 162 | 66% | 58.2% | +7.8% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 112 | 50.9% | 52.1% | -1.2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 115 | 55.7% | 47.3% | +8.4% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 93 | 47.3% | 43.1% | +4.2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 85 | 36.5% | 39.7% | -3.2% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 77 | 41.6% | 36.8% | +4.8% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 67 | 35.8% | 34.4% | +1.4% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 58 | 39.7% | 32% | +7.7% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 48 | 31.2% | 30.2% | +1% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 43 | 67.4% | 74.2% | -6.8% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 241 | 62.7% | 65% | -2.3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 362 | 56.1% | 58.2% | -2.1% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 395 | 52.9% | 52.2% | +0.7% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 310 | 46.1% | 47.4% | -1.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 216 | 44.9% | 43.5% | +1.4% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 100 | 40% | 40.1% | -0.1% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 45 | 46.7% | 36.9% | +9.8% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 66 | 57.6% | 63.7% | -6.1% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 287 | 55.7% | 57.5% | -1.8% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 318 | 54.4% | 52.3% | +2.1% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 368 | 48.6% | 47.3% | +1.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 251 | 45% | 43.4% | +1.6% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 188 | 40.4% | 39.8% | +0.6% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 118 | 38.1% | 37% | +1.1% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 46 | 32.6% | 34.4% | -1.8% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 25 | 32% | 32.2% | -0.2% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 21 | 42.9% | 30.3% | +12.6% |
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