1,145 matches | 2021-08-06 → 2026-01-11
Avg Goals
3.1
Over 2.5 Rate
61%
Home Win Rate
48.5%
Draw Rate
15.5%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 49 | 69.4% | 73.9% | -4.5% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 356 | 67.4% | 65.3% | +2.1% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 358 | 59.5% | 58.6% | +0.9% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 210 | 53.8% | 52.5% | +1.3% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 104 | 58.7% | 47.8% | +10.9% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 52 | 51.9% | 43.6% | +8.3% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 51 | 47.1% | 56.9% | -9.8% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 97 | 45.4% | 51.8% | -6.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 209 | 45.5% | 47.3% | -1.8% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 202 | 40.6% | 43.4% | -2.8% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 207 | 38.2% | 39.9% | -1.7% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 159 | 34% | 37% | -3% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 85 | 37.6% | 34.6% | +3% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 56 | 21.4% | 32.4% | -11% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 27 | 40.7% | 30.4% | +10.3% |
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