1,180 matches | 2021-08-06 → 2026-02-16
Avg Goals
3.12
Over 2.5 Rate
60.9%
Home Win Rate
48.3%
Draw Rate
15.3%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 23 | 73.9% | 85.9% | -12% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 43 | 79.1% | 75.2% | +3.9% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 61 | 60.7% | 65.9% | -5.2% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 77 | 63.6% | 58.1% | +5.5% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 60 | 38.3% | 52.3% | -14% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 61 | 50.8% | 47% | +3.8% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 58 | 43.1% | 43.1% | 0% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 62 | 50% | 39.6% | +10.4% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 55 | 56.4% | 36.7% | +19.7% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 52 | 32.7% | 34.3% | -1.6% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 38 | 31.6% | 32% | -0.4% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 34 | 26.5% | 30.3% | -3.8% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2-3.4 | 46 | 13% | 29.9% | -16.9% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 32 | 21.9% | 28.9% | -7% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 53 | 86.8% | 87.2% | -0.4% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 121 | 80.2% | 75.5% | +4.7% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 135 | 66.7% | 65.9% | +0.8% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 118 | 59.3% | 58.6% | +0.7% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 97 | 57.7% | 52.5% | +5.2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 78 | 48.7% | 47.1% | +1.6% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 72 | 38.9% | 43.2% | -4.3% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 54 | 38.9% | 39.8% | -0.9% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 55 | 30.9% | 36.9% | -6% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 42 | 45.2% | 34.5% | +10.7% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 30 | 40% | 31.9% | +8.1% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 26 | 38.5% | 30.1% | +8.4% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 50 | 70% | 74% | -4% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 359 | 67.4% | 65.3% | +2.1% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 363 | 59.5% | 58.6% | +0.9% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 212 | 53.8% | 52.5% | +1.3% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 106 | 58.5% | 47.8% | +10.7% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 53 | 50.9% | 43.6% | +7.3% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 52 | 48.1% | 56.9% | -8.8% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 99 | 45.5% | 51.8% | -6.3% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 211 | 45.5% | 47.3% | -1.8% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 205 | 40.5% | 43.4% | -2.9% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 209 | 38.3% | 39.9% | -1.6% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 159 | 34% | 37% | -3% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 85 | 37.6% | 34.6% | +3% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 57 | 21.1% | 32.4% | -11.3% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 29 | 41.4% | 30.4% | +11% |
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