2,140 matches | 2021-08-13 → 2026-03-01
Avg Goals
2.3
Over 2.5 Rate
42%
Home Win Rate
44.7%
Draw Rate
29.7%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 75 | 65.3% | 58% | +7.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 150 | 60.7% | 52% | +8.7% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 270 | 47% | 47.2% | -0.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 355 | 45.4% | 43.2% | +2.2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 384 | 39.6% | 39.9% | -0.3% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 356 | 37.4% | 37% | +0.4% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 242 | 33.5% | 34.4% | -0.9% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 124 | 36.3% | 32.2% | +4.1% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 106 | 34% | 30.2% | +3.8% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 25 | 32% | 28.8% | +3.2% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 49 | 71.4% | 72.5% | -1.1% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 766 | 64.1% | 65.2% | -1.1% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 748 | 59% | 58.6% | +0.4% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 301 | 53.5% | 52.5% | +1% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 154 | 40.9% | 47.9% | -7% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 66 | 33.3% | 43.5% | -10.2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 33 | 39.4% | 40.1% | -0.7% |
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