1,559 matches | 2021-08-06 → 2026-03-01
Avg Goals
2.82
Over 2.5 Rate
53.2%
Home Win Rate
43.9%
Draw Rate
24.1%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 51 | 74.5% | 74.1% | +0.4% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 173 | 68.2% | 65.5% | +2.7% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 339 | 58.4% | 58.1% | +0.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 393 | 57% | 52.3% | +4.7% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 325 | 44.3% | 47.6% | -3.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 160 | 40.6% | 43.5% | -2.9% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 76 | 32.9% | 40.3% | -7.4% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 25 | 52% | 37.1% | +14.9% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 21 | 61.9% | 63.7% | -1.8% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 185 | 60% | 57.7% | +2.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 331 | 57.1% | 52.1% | +5% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 378 | 44.4% | 47.4% | -3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 238 | 40.8% | 43.4% | -2.6% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 147 | 44.2% | 40% | +4.2% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 92 | 41.3% | 36.8% | +4.5% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 49 | 24.5% | 34.3% | -9.8% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 33 | 21.2% | 32.2% | -11% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 26 | 23.1% | 30.1% | -7% |
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