1,658 matches | 2021-07-24 → 2026-02-16
Avg Goals
2.43
Over 2.5 Rate
45%
Home Win Rate
42.6%
Draw Rate
27.1%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 27 | 48.1% | 58.1% | -10% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 50 | 52% | 52% | 0% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 68 | 60.3% | 47.1% | +13.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 73 | 43.8% | 43% | +0.8% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 108 | 42.6% | 39.7% | +2.9% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 102 | 32.4% | 36.7% | -4.3% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 106 | 30.2% | 34.3% | -4.1% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 102 | 33.3% | 32% | +1.3% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 86 | 25.6% | 30% | -4.4% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 46 | 26.1% | 28.9% | -2.8% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.8-3.0 | 61 | 27.9% | 33.7% | -5.8% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 242 | 32.2% | 31.9% | +0.3% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 471 | 29.3% | 30.1% | -0.8% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 173 | 30.1% | 28.9% | +1.2% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 26 | 88.5% | 73.7% | +14.8% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 74 | 64.9% | 65.4% | -0.5% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 150 | 63.3% | 58.3% | +5% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 188 | 47.3% | 52.1% | -4.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 191 | 49.7% | 47.2% | +2.5% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 201 | 41.8% | 43.2% | -1.4% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 158 | 44.3% | 39.8% | +4.5% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 120 | 40.8% | 36.8% | +4% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 113 | 31% | 34.3% | -3.3% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 94 | 37.2% | 32.2% | +5% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 84 | 32.1% | 30% | +2.1% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 23 | 30.4% | 29% | +1.4% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 80 | 53.8% | 57.6% | -3.9% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 176 | 53.4% | 51.9% | +1.5% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 343 | 47.8% | 47.3% | +0.5% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 405 | 47.4% | 43.3% | +4.1% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 309 | 42.4% | 40% | +2.4% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 160 | 29.4% | 37.1% | -7.7% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 78 | 39.7% | 34.5% | +5.2% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 49 | 32.7% | 32.4% | +0.3% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 20 | 25% | 30.4% | -5.4% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 252 | 65.5% | 64.8% | +0.7% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 656 | 57.6% | 58.4% | -0.8% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 418 | 51.4% | 52.6% | -1.2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 193 | 47.2% | 47.9% | -0.7% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 65 | 40% | 43.7% | -3.7% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 31 | 58.1% | 39.9% | +18.2% |
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