2,362 matches | 2021-07-02 → 2025-12-06
Avg Goals
2.96
Over 2.5 Rate
58.1%
Home Win Rate
47%
Draw Rate
25.5%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.8-2.0 | 23 | 52.2% | 51.9% | +0.3% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 45 | 46.7% | 46.9% | -0.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 77 | 41.6% | 43.1% | -1.5% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 91 | 39.6% | 39.8% | -0.2% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 112 | 37.5% | 36.8% | +0.7% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 125 | 40% | 34.3% | +5.7% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 155 | 37.4% | 32.1% | +5.3% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 164 | 35.4% | 30.1% | +5.3% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 63 | 27% | 28.9% | -1.9% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2-3.4 | 40 | 17.5% | 29.9% | -12.4% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 61 | 36.1% | 28.9% | +7.2% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 45 | 80% | 73% | +7% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 203 | 65.5% | 65.3% | +0.2% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 433 | 58.4% | 58.1% | +0.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 416 | 50.7% | 52.1% | -1.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 347 | 45.2% | 47.3% | -2.1% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 278 | 39.6% | 43.2% | -3.6% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 203 | 33% | 39.8% | -6.8% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 140 | 34.3% | 36.9% | -2.6% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 108 | 33.3% | 34.4% | -1.1% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 47 | 34% | 32.1% | +1.9% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 53 | 34% | 30.1% | +3.9% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 27 | 74.1% | 72.2% | +1.9% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 454 | 67% | 65% | +2% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 880 | 60.5% | 58.3% | +2.2% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 606 | 55.3% | 52.4% | +2.9% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 275 | 45.8% | 47.9% | -2.1% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 83 | 47% | 43.6% | +3.4% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 22 | 31.8% | 40.3% | -8.5% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 78 | 57.7% | 57.4% | +0.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 243 | 53.5% | 51.8% | +1.7% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 563 | 45.3% | 47.2% | -1.9% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 506 | 42.5% | 43.3% | -0.8% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 406 | 39.7% | 40% | -0.3% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 241 | 36.9% | 37% | -0.1% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 150 | 32.7% | 34.5% | -1.8% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 79 | 27.8% | 32.2% | -4.4% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 41 | 22% | 30% | -8% |
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