1,545 matches | 2021-08-21 → 2026-03-01
Avg Goals
2.65
Over 2.5 Rate
49.9%
Home Win Rate
40.8%
Draw Rate
27.3%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 84 | 66.7% | 65.2% | +1.5% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 309 | 56.3% | 57.9% | -1.6% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 364 | 54.7% | 52.2% | +2.5% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 305 | 49.2% | 47.5% | +1.7% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 235 | 40.9% | 43.4% | -2.5% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 129 | 36.4% | 40% | -3.6% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 57 | 42.1% | 37.1% | +5% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 30 | 36.7% | 34.5% | +2.2% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 74 | 63.5% | 64.4% | -0.9% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 332 | 60.2% | 57.9% | +2.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 350 | 52.3% | 52.2% | +0.1% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 301 | 49.5% | 47.6% | +1.9% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 241 | 37.3% | 43.4% | -6.1% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 127 | 49.6% | 39.8% | +9.8% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 55 | 23.6% | 36.9% | -13.3% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 20 | 45% | 34.3% | +10.7% |
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