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© 2026 PicksArena. Data sourced from 57,000+ matches across 51 leagues (2021–2026). For analytical purposes only — not betting advice.

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Serie A (Italy)

1,545 matches | 2021-08-21 → 2026-03-01

Avg Goals

2.65

Over 2.5 Rate

49.9%

Home Win Rate

40.8%

Draw Rate

27.3%

Lay Over 2.5 — Odds Band Breakdown

Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.

Odds BandMatchesHit RateImplied ProbGap
1.4-1.68466.7%65.2%+1.5%
1.6-1.830956.3%57.9%-1.6%
1.8-2.036454.7%52.2%+2.5%
2.0-2.230549.2%47.5%+1.7%
2.2-2.423540.9%43.4%-2.5%
2.4-2.612936.4%40%-3.6%
2.6-2.85742.1%37.1%+5%
2.8-3.03036.7%34.5%+2.2%

Lay Under 2.5 — Odds Band Breakdown

Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.

Odds BandMatchesHit RateImplied ProbGap
1.4-1.67463.5%64.4%-0.9%
1.6-1.833260.2%57.9%+2.3%
1.8-2.035052.3%52.2%+0.1%
2.0-2.230149.5%47.6%+1.9%
2.2-2.424137.3%43.4%-6.1%
2.4-2.612749.6%39.8%+9.8%
2.6-2.85523.6%36.9%-13.3%
2.8-3.02045%34.3%+10.7%

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