1,802 matches | 2021-08-20 → 2026-03-01
Avg Goals
2.44
Over 2.5 Rate
44.5%
Home Win Rate
40.1%
Draw Rate
32%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 59 | 57.6% | 57.1% | +0.5% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 163 | 49.1% | 52% | -2.9% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 472 | 46.4% | 47.2% | -0.8% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 488 | 43% | 43.3% | -0.3% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 351 | 42.7% | 40% | +2.7% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 162 | 35.8% | 37% | -1.2% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 58 | 44.8% | 34.4% | +10.4% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 20 | 40% | 32.4% | +7.6% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 184 | 59.2% | 64.2% | -5% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 825 | 58.2% | 58.1% | +0.1% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 509 | 53.8% | 52.4% | +1.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 188 | 51.6% | 47.9% | +3.7% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 60 | 43.3% | 43.7% | -0.4% |
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