1,615 matches | 2021-08-13 → 2026-02-16
Avg Goals
2.86
Over 2.5 Rate
54.2%
Home Win Rate
45.4%
Draw Rate
25%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 24 | 79.2% | 75.2% | +4% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 52 | 82.7% | 66% | +16.7% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 56 | 69.6% | 58.1% | +11.5% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 45 | 62.2% | 52.1% | +10.1% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 54 | 51.9% | 47.1% | +4.8% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 82 | 46.3% | 43.1% | +3.2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 80 | 38.8% | 39.8% | -1% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 70 | 38.6% | 36.8% | +1.8% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 100 | 31% | 34.2% | -3.2% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 72 | 31.9% | 32% | -0.1% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 89 | 27% | 30.1% | -3.1% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 38 | 21.1% | 28.9% | -7.8% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2-3.4 | 127 | 23.6% | 29.9% | -6.3% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 94 | 27.7% | 28.9% | -1.2% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 29 | 86.2% | 84.9% | +1.3% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 93 | 84.9% | 76.2% | +8.7% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 118 | 70.3% | 65.9% | +4.4% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 158 | 63.9% | 58% | +5.9% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 182 | 51.6% | 52% | -0.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 159 | 46.5% | 47.1% | -0.6% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 180 | 50.6% | 43.2% | +7.4% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 123 | 36.6% | 39.7% | -3.1% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 101 | 44.6% | 36.8% | +7.8% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 83 | 33.7% | 34.3% | -0.6% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 50 | 30% | 32% | -2% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 51 | 21.6% | 30.2% | -8.6% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 55 | 83.6% | 73.3% | +10.3% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 199 | 67.8% | 65.8% | +2% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 381 | 59.8% | 58.1% | +1.7% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 466 | 48.5% | 52.1% | -3.6% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 315 | 47.9% | 47.7% | +0.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 128 | 48.4% | 43.5% | +4.9% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 36 | 38.9% | 40.3% | -1.4% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 133 | 54.9% | 57.2% | -2.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 291 | 51.5% | 51.9% | -0.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 465 | 51% | 47.4% | +3.6% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 235 | 44.7% | 43.4% | +1.3% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 175 | 44.6% | 40% | +4.6% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 87 | 29.9% | 37% | -7.1% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 54 | 27.8% | 34.3% | -6.5% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 58 | 31% | 32.1% | -1.1% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 26 | 42.3% | 30.3% | +12% |
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