773 matches | 2021-07-04 → 2025-11-09
Avg Goals
2.89
Over 2.5 Rate
56.8%
Home Win Rate
42.9%
Draw Rate
23%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 28 | 57.1% | 65.6% | -8.5% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 39 | 74.4% | 57.6% | +16.8% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 45 | 60% | 51.7% | +8.3% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 45 | 48.9% | 47.6% | +1.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 55 | 43.6% | 42.9% | +0.7% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 36 | 44.4% | 39.7% | +4.7% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 37 | 48.6% | 36.6% | +12% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 51 | 35.3% | 34.4% | +0.9% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 34 | 41.2% | 31.9% | +9.3% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 27 | 37% | 30% | +7% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2-3.4 | 46 | 28.3% | 29.9% | -1.6% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 42 | 23.8% | 28.9% | -5.1% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 37 | 64.9% | 74.4% | -9.5% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 70 | 71.4% | 65.6% | +5.8% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 77 | 63.6% | 58.4% | +5.2% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 80 | 62.5% | 52.3% | +10.2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 65 | 52.3% | 47.3% | +5% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 62 | 45.2% | 42.9% | +2.3% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 45 | 33.3% | 39.5% | -6.2% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 40 | 40% | 37% | +3% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 35 | 31.4% | 34.3% | -2.9% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 42 | 28.6% | 32.1% | -3.5% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 34 | 29.4% | 30.1% | -0.7% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 70 | 72.9% | 65.7% | +7.2% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 196 | 62.8% | 58.3% | +4.5% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 179 | 56.4% | 52.2% | +4.2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 161 | 52.8% | 47.5% | +5.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 95 | 49.5% | 43.4% | +6.1% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 48 | 37.5% | 40.1% | -2.6% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 123 | 55.3% | 57.5% | -2.2% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 152 | 49.3% | 52.2% | -2.9% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 184 | 41.8% | 47.6% | -5.8% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 111 | 41.4% | 43.4% | -2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 92 | 40.2% | 40% | +0.2% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 39 | 25.6% | 37.1% | -11.5% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 22 | 31.8% | 34.4% | -2.6% |
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